Why Republicans Face an Uphill Battle in the 2024 Presidential Election
Many people hope that Donald Trump will win the Presidential election in 2024. I also wish for a responsible leader with a strong understanding of how our country works. Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against the Republican Party in America, largely due to sheer numbers. There are approximately 10% more registered Democrats than Republicans in the United States, with roughly 38% identifying as Republican and 48% as Democrat. This automatically gives the Democrats a 10-point lead, assuming voters stick to party lines. The party that ultimately determines elections is the Independent Party, and it always has been.
There are 210 million registered voters in the United States; however, only 32 states report registration by party. Of those 32 states, 47,930,217 are Democrats, 38,389,739 are Republicans, and 35,303,427 are Independents. Additionally, 4,018,373 belong to other parties such as the Green Party and the Peace and Freedom Party.
Mathematically, based on the information we have, Democrats can largely control the outcome if everyone votes along party lines. However, it is the 38 million Independents who ultimately decide who will win the presidency.
When you read the news, you’ll often see questionable polling numbers. Polling can’t be trusted because the outcome depends on who is polled. I don’t believe any polling data due to the media’s agendas. Liberal media might claim Harris is winning, while conservative media might claim Trump is leading. In reality, these polls don’t matter much.
Where Republicans and Democrats do matter is in the Senate. Each state provides two Senators, and these elections are critical to how our country moves forward. Congressional seats, which are based on population districts, operate slightly differently, but the importance remains. It is the House and Senate that shape the tone of our government. If one party controls the House, Senate, and Presidency, the only thing preventing the passage of policies is the checks and balances set by the Supreme Court.
Given all of this, we should closely watch what the Independents are thinking during this election cycle. Independents control who becomes President, not the Republicans or Democrats. If polls focused solely on Independents, we would have a clearer idea of who will win the election in November. Among Independent voters, jobs, the economy, government leadership, immigration, and taxes/government spending top their list of concerns. Looking at the last four years, Republicans are hopeful that they have enough support to sway the election.
In conclusion, the Republicans face an uphill battle in the 2024 Presidential election. They are at a disadvantage in terms of registered voters compared to Democrats and must rely on the Independent voting bloc to secure a Republican President. With Trump likely facing legal challenges in September, a political stunt that could push voters away from the Republican party, the situation is even more precarious. However, it may also rally some voters who see this as a political game with high stakes.
Ignore the polls and the liberal press, and instead, dig into what Independents are thinking. That will likely reveal the winner this November. However, it doesn’t look very promising for Trump at this moment. Mathematically and historically, he will need to speak from the heart, or the Democratic Party will need to make significant mistakes to swing the votes. Perhaps that’s why Harris is staying out of the spotlight. Think about it.
Mike you are so spot on. The Republicans are on shaky ground, and with the over whelming immigration voting, it will be a miracle that God will make the deciding vote.
People do not do research anymore. If anyone looked at Harris’s policies that were released yesterday on the economy they would see they were right out of the socialists playbook. When you try to regulate prices on groceries which is a private industry you will crush it. It is very short-sided – and will have repercussions all they way back to the farms that produce our food with many going out of business, and then – where will the food come from. Trump needs to stay on message and quit the insulting crap – and act with the dignity that the office requires. Harris will implode when she has to come forward on the debates and we will see how she is. Trump needs to not tell one lie to keep the media off his back and keep his insults to himself. This will maybe influence the independents to vote for him. He needs a strict message, economy, borders, taxes and oil production. It is very simple –
Here is the scary part. Independent Voters by Age – Millennials Age 28-43 – Mass supporters of the Democrat Liberal Policies (36% of the Party); Gen Z – 12-27 years old (voters 18 or over) (26% of the Party) – They just care about drugs and abortion, Boomers age 60-78 (16% of the Party); Gen X 44-59 Years Old (21% of the Party). Just based on those demographics 62% of the party lean or are Liberal – Gen X is split so we can count on about half the party to be liberal, half conservative, and most of the Boomers are Conservative – so Independents lean or are conservative are about 27%, the rest are up for grabs (11%). Just understand that, and you already know Trump has lost the election. Electoral votes can sometimes change an election and that is what may make the difference but mathematically it still does not pan out. Had Biden stayed in the race lots of the Independents would have voted Trump – now that Harris is in the race – they will vote for her because she is black and female and supports abortion up to the day of birth– that is all that matters. God and Country won’t matter until the massive invasions and wars begin, the economy collapses and riots take place in the streets – and then it will be too late.
Not watching the DNC. The summary from the real news / video clips / show lots of lies being told. Biden told a bunch with his speech. Weak minds will buy their lies and strong minds will do their own research. I prefer to watch the video evidence – you can’t hide the truth there – but it can be changed – so you have to watch it on several sources to verify its accuracy. Bidens speech was in text – so it is hard to deny the lies he told. Harris is an empty suit – and I have no plans on watching something when my mind is already made up. I do wonder though if Kennedy will drop out of the race and support Trump as the rumors state. That would be an interesting spin on the election cycle.